Filed under: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Yahoo! (YHOO)

Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) yesterday posted its lowest price in nearly five years. The stock moved to $17.75, down from a 52-week high of $34.08.

The Wall Street Journal pushed the idea that this was an options play. “Trading in Yahoo options leapt to four times the normal level as investors picked up 168,000 calls that allow them to buy the company’s stock.” In other words, some traders are willing to gamble that the shares will go up.

But, they won’t go up. There is growing evidence that marketers prefer search internet ads to display advertising. Yahoo! sells a great deal of display inventory and is a distant second to Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) in search. Some of that may change as Yahoo! begins to use the Google system to create its search results.That may not offset the fact that Yahoo! probably has as much display advertising availability as any company in the world.

Because Yahoo! has shown it is unwilling to make major cost cuts, a flattening of its revenue growth would be a disaster for its investors. The firm’s year-over-year sales improvement is already barely above 10%. What had been a growth stock three or four years ago has now become a buyout gamble. Investors still hang on to some hope that Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) or a large media company will make an offer for the portal company.

That means that Yahoo! still carries a “takeover” premium, which begs the question of where the shares might trade at the end of the year, if there are no offers. Investors are gambling that there is a 30% chance that Yahoo! will be bought, if it is not, the stock heads toward $13.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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This entry was posted on Friday, September 5th, 2008 at 4:13 pm and is filed under Employment opportunities. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.