Archive for December 27th, 2007

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Investors should consider selling Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares and using the profits to buy Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). The reason is that Apple’s current price reflects more of its growth potential than does Google’s.

This is the idea that occurred to me this afternoon while CNBC’s Erin Burnett interviewed me about whether to sell Apple stock. As I posted this morning, I am very impressed with Apple’s success with its retail stores. I am also wowed by the popularity of its iPod and iPhones — not to mention the growing market penetration of its Macs. Moreover, as I mentioned to Erin, despite some 85 new services, Google is essentially a one service company.

So why should investors consider selling Apple and buying Google? In a word, valuation. Having risen 144% in the last year, Apple trades at a Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.8 — on a P/E of 50.6 and earnings growth of 28% to $6.45 in the Fiscal Year Ending September 2009. By contrast, Google — which his increased 55% in the last year — trades at a PEG of 1.5 — with a P/E of 55.6 on earnings forecast to grow 36% in 2008.

But Google is almost twice as profitable as Apple. While Apple earned a net profit margin of 14.6% on its $24 billion in sales over the last year, Google’s net margin was 27% on its $15 billion in revenues. Therefore, Google’s net income of $4 billion was higher than Apple’s $3.5 billion.

And with its success, analysts are raising the expectations bar on Apple — making it increasingly difficult for it to exceed expectations. For instance, in the quarter ending December 2006, Apple exceeded earnings expectations by 46% and it has beaten expectations in each quarter since — but by a lower amount. In the quarter ending September 2007, Apple beat by 20%. Eventually, analysts’ expectations will rise to the point where Apple can no longer exceed them.

And since there’s no clear new product introduction for 2008 — such as the iPhone in 2007 — to enable Apple’s growth, it may make sense to take profits and put them in a faster growing company with higher profit margins — such as Google.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Apple or Google securities.

 

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A man uses an Apple iPhone in LondonIt was certainly an exciting year for wireless. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)’s iPhone was a game changer, there were some big announcements from Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), and even Nokia (NYSE: NOK) made an impressive comeback.

As for 2008, it’s a good bet we’ll continue to see some big headlines.

I interviewed Frank Dickson, who is the chief research officer at MultiMedia Intelligence. According to him:

The handset as a platform: The introduction of the iPhone was the first example of this. It did not create the trend, but it did add fuel to the fire. Google’s Android and a rumored Java-based OS are elements of the developing trend. Essentially, we are seeing the rise of a new class of mobile devices that are applications centric with voice functionality. These devices are internet browsers, music players, text messengers, and e-mail devices. Yes, they still make voice calls, but they are clearly optimized for other uses. Operators such as Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ) are seeing the coming explosion of this product class and have embraced it by opening their networks to these devices.

Exobyte Era arrives: An exobyte is equal to five times the size of all the printed matter in the history of the world. By 2001, there will be 30 exobytes worth of network traffic on a monthly basis. Essentially, video is filling what was once dark fiber and is driving a new build-out of internet infrastructure. The promises of 2000 are beginning to be realized; it just took eight years for the business models to catch up with the dreams.

The lines blur between hardware providers and service providers: A number of companies are leveraging their positions in the ecosystem into launched new offerings. Apple is most noteworthy of these, moving from a content distributor and platform provider to becoming a maker of handsets. Nokia has made huge investments to move from a position of a handset vendors to one of becoming an total experience provider. Operators, fearing the prospect of losing ARPU (average revenue per user) and becoming bandwidth providers, are fighting back with compelling content offerings and branding white label handsets.

Continued failure of the MVNO model: The MVNO is a novel concept, but it is a concept that seems to fail economics. Amp’d Mobile has declared bankruptcy. Disney Mobile and XE Mobile also ended their services. Helio has shaky prospects at best. In the economic Darwinism, with market players focusing on and leveraging their core competencies, the MVNO seems to be a victim of a lack of significant distinctiveness and added value.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

 

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BloggingStocks readers and AOL Money & Finance visitors have spoken, and below are the Best & Worst of 2007. (See the individual posts for full results.)

Company of the Year: Google, internet search provider turned diversified services giant, received 51% of the vote, beating such strong contenders as Apple and Coca-Cola.

Hottest Gadget of the Year: After all the hoopla surrounding the launch of the iPhone, it’s no big surprise that it tops this category, with 47% of the vote, besting second place finisher the Nintendo Wii.

Dumbest Celebrity Feud: Rosie O’Donnell’s squabbles with Donald Trump (and also with Elizabeth Hasselbeck) garnered 66% of the vote, easily beating out the back-and-forth between Britney Spears and her ex, Kevin Federline.

Hottest Car of the Year: The Cadillac CTS led with 43% of the vote, easily beating the BMW M3 and others in this category.

Dumbest Moment in Business: JetBlue’s stranding of passengers on a cramped, grounded airliner for hours netted 51% of the vote.

Most Shameless Attempt at Cashing in on ‘15 Minutes’ of Fame: American Idol’s Sanjaya Malakar received 39% of the vote, giving him the edge over Anna Nicole Smith hangers on Howard K. Stern and Larry Birkhead.

Breakout City of the Year: Dubai, UAE, has the largest freestanding hotel and the largest man-made harbor in the world, making it the “City Built for Tourism” and earning it 49% of the vote.

Most Overused Buzzword: “Globalization” is overwhelming reviled, judging by its 60% of the vote.

The Money Story of the Year: Fifty-six percent of voters chose the combination of high oil and gold prices with the weak dollar, over such other big stories as the housing slump/mortgage meltdown and the toy and food recalls.

Hottest Chain Restaurant: McDonald’s received 37% percent of the vote for revitalizing its menu and providing investors with great returns.

Celebrity Most Likely to Lose It All: Britney Spears’s continuing downward spiral garnered her 42% of the vote, keeping her ahead of second place finisher and former NFL star Michael Vick.

Best CEO Departure of the Year: It’s a photo finish for Citigroup’s former CEO, Chuck Prince, and Bill Ford Jr. of Ford Motor Co., both with 30% of the vote, but Prince wins by a nose with about 300 more votes. Did somebody ask for a recount?

Most Overpaid Celebrity: Oprah Winfrey’s 53% percent of the vote earns her top honors in this category, this after losing out to Paris Hilton in 2006.

The Most Hated Company: In what was clearly the most contentious category, with more comments and more votes than any other, ExxonMobil tops the list with 41% percent of the vote, beating Wal-Mart in second place.

Most Annoying Money Personality: Domestic diva, ex-con, and media magnate, Martha Stewart received 54% of the vote, easily beating second place finisher Mark Cuban.

Most Worrisome Consumer Trend: Rising fuel prices topped this category, with 55% of the vote, while the subprime mortgage mess came in a distant second.

Yes, it was a very good (or bad) year for these winners and runners up. Here’s looking forward to whatever may arise as the Best & Worst of 2008.

 

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Well if nothing else, at least the legendary Chun Li is not going to be played by Jessica Biel. ComingSoon.net is reporting that Smallville’s Kristin Kreuk has signed to star in the new Street Fighter film. There has been no official word on which role she is going to play, but the smart money is on her taking over where Ming-Na Wen left off in the 1994 incarnation of Capcom’s classic game. News of the film first surfaced back in October, 2006 and back in July there had been an early review of Justin Marks‘ script. Early word had the plot centering on Li as she searches for those responsible for her father’s murder all while taking down the Shadoloo organization. There has been very little mention of any of the other Street Fighter characters making an appearance, so I would expect that not much has changed in Marks original ideas of the film’s direction. The flick is expected to start production this spring and will film on location in Thailand in March 2008.

This is Kreuk’s third feature film, having already starred in Partition with Neve Campbell and a slightly less dignified role in the teen comedy, Eurotrip. Andrzej Bartkowiak has already signed to direct. For those of you out there worried that Street Fighter will degenerate into another cheese-fest, I can’t say I blame you. Of course the worse news is that Bartkowiak’s resume highlights include Cradle 2 the Grave and Romeo Must Die, so I can’t be the only one thinking that this film might be destined for direct to DVD obscurity.

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The Great Debaters is inspired by the true story of how professor Melvin B. Tolson (played by Denzel Washington) formed the first debate team at Wiley College — a black liberal arts institution — in the 1930’s Jim Crow south. The film was just nominated for a Golden Globe Award for Best Picture of the Year, and it co-stars Forest Whitaker. Debaters is Washington’s second film as a director (his first was Antwone Fisher). Cinematical attended a press junket earlier this month with Washington and the film’s young debaters: Nate Parker, Jurnee Smollett, and Denzel Whitaker. Yes, the co-star of a movie with Denzel Washington and Forest Whitaker is named Denzel Whitaker! To avoid confusion, we’ll refer to them as they refer to themselves — Big Denzel (Washington) and Little Denzel (Whitaker).

What did you guys to do prepare for this film?

BIG DENZEL: We set up a camp for the kids. I met Dr. Freeman, who is the debating coach at Texas Southern, which is one of the top debating schools in the country. I interviewed him and put him on film and asked if we could set up a little mini-camp for the young actors and he put them through their paces.

NP: We arrived and learned all about parliamentary and impromptu debate. Denzel was very adamant about us researching and knowing what we were talking about, and being well versed in the process of debate. So we got the Texas Southern University team, and they took us through it and gave us a class course. They told us we should be more persuasive, being that we’re actors! So the first day we learned about debate, the second day we broke into teams and we debated. And the morning of, we were watching CNN and MSNBC and reading the Wall Street Journal. You should have seen us, we took it very serious, and we defeated their freshman and sophomore team.

Continue reading Junket Report: The Great Debaters

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Fox Movie Rentals Coming to iTunes

Those long-rumored movie rentals are finally coming to iTunes. Reports have been coming in that Twentieth Century Fox and Apple just signed a deal that will put content from the movie studio up in the online media outlet for rent (in addition to straight out purchase).

Details are slim at the moment, but it is reported that Fox has been granted some flexibility with pricing, meaning newer films may be priced higher than those from the current iTunes movie catalog.

In addition to the availability through iTunes, the deal will also allow Fox films to be easily transfered to a computer or iPod using Apple’s FairPlay DRM scheme.

The deal is expected to be officially announced at the January 14 MacWorld Expo.

From Engadget

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Britney Spears' Jacket

When we were growing up, Wet Seal made inexpensive clothing for the bad girls. At least that’s what our sisters told us.

So what happens when bad-girl Britney Spears puts on one of their jackets, and someone else gets his hands on it? It sells for over $1,400 on eBay. The jacket, described as the one she wore while “shopping at Ralph’s one evening in LA,” still has Britney’s “pleasant smell in it and it smells very nice!” As of this posting, it’s going for $1,425.00.

The eBay seller promises the jacket’s authenticity, as it came from her personal assistant. We’re thinking Britney should have a sit-down with these “assistants”.

For those of you who can live without the special “scent,” you can pick up this jacket from the clearance racks at Wet Seal for about $20. Good luck.

From TMZ

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Sharp Aquos LCD TV

While all the focus in consumer tech is on Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD let’s not forget the other ongoing format war: LCD vs. plasma TV. While the high-definition disc war makes trouble for consumers (which format to choose?) the competition in flat panel displays only helps us because continued efficiencies in manufacturing processes make these TVs more affordable.

Look no further than the report by research firm DisplaySearch on the expected drop in prices for larger-size LCD panels in the coming years. To this point, the plasma TV makers, and primarily Panasonic, have counted on LCD being too expensive in the larger screen sizes, basically 37 inches diagonally and above. Now, if DisplaySearch is right, by 2010 production costs for a 32-inch HD LCD TV will drop below $400, a 42-inch full HD panel to below $600 and a 52-inch full HD panel to below $1,000. (Note: production costs don’t necessary equate to final costs on the retail store shelves.)

Plasma TV proponents have maintained that for screen sizes 37 inches and above their technology is the best - both in terms of cost and quality. LCD has dominated the smaller screen sizes - meaning everything from small screens on digital cameras and cell phones to TVs measuring up to 32-inches diagonally - but the real test is to go large.

Companies like Sharp are counting on diving LCD prices and expansion into the larger sizes - and ultimately into consumers’ homes. Sony stopped marketing plasma TV in 2006, instead banking on LCD. Samsung and Panasonic, among others, market both kinds of devices - but it is no secret that Panasonic has bet its future on large plasma displays coming out on top.

If the plasma TV manufacturers are not able to similarly push their production costs down in the coming years, will this mark the end of their dominance in the larger screen sizes? Only time will tell.

We expect prices to drop for both technologies, whether due to manufacturing efficiency or retail competition. The consumer benefits. Stay tuned.

From DigiTimes

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Multitasking

For a society so obsessed with productivity, we’re pretty bad at actually being productive. Sure, services such as Google and Wikipedia have been described as being time hogs, but apparently the real killer is multitasking.

2008 is being dubbed the “year of information overload” by Basex Inc., a research firm. The human brain is not hardwired for paying attention to several things at once or for handling constant interruptions. The pressure put on us by technology to respond immediately to E-mails, text messages, and IMs cost the US economy around $650 Billion in 2006, according to Basex.

The solution is to ignore those expectations of instant gratification, according to Johnathan Spira, the lead researcher at Basex. Resist the urge to immediately follow up on every E-mail, phone call or IM, and learn to walk that fine line between getting things done and pestering your co-workers when hitting that reply all button.

From AOL Money & Finance

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The votes have been tabulated. It’s time to find out which PS3 games reigned supreme in the PS3’s first full year of games. There were a number of great candidates for most of the categories this year (::cough:: Strategy — maybe you’ll fare better next year). Check out what the writers and readers of PS3 Fanboy thought were the best games of the year.

Game of the Year
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare

Call of Duty 4 accomplishes so much, on so many different levels. Although a multiplatform title, the team at Infinity Ward did an incredible job to ensure that the PS3 version performed just as well as, if not better than, the Xbox 360 version. Visually, the game is almost unsurpassed. There is an incredible amount of variety in the levels, and each one is meticulously designed with beautiful textures, lighting and special effects. Gunning enemies down from a copter may be one of the most visually realistic sections in gaming so far. The single player campaign may be brief, but features intelligently designed level designs and beautiful set pieces that put other FPS games this year to shame. The story is filled with surprises, and your jaw will drop more than once throughout the emotional campaign.

Not only does Call of Duty 4 succeed at providing one of the most compelling single player adventures this year, it also has an incredible multiplayer community. No matter what type of gameplay you prefer, chances are you’ll find it in CoD. Prefer a fast, arcadey deathmatch? Or, do you want an ultra-realistic mode that turns off the HUD and makes each shot as lethal as it should be? The number of customizations available make the experience unique to each player. Add Perks and real-times skills changing, and you have an accessible multiplayer game that’s as deep as you’d like to make it.

Don’t miss out on Call of Duty 4 just because it’s a multiplatform game. Infinity Ward’s stellar job on the PS3 must be commended, and the excellent multiplayer support shows that the free PSN can offer an experience just as compelling and worthwhile as XBL. Call of Duty 4 is a game that will have you coming back for more, and more — and we can’t wait for Infinity Ward’s next game.

Reader’s Choice: Game of the Year
Uncharted: Drake’s Fortune (31% of votes)

Uncharted stole the hearts of PS3 Fanboy readers, and for good reason! It’s an incredible game that features the best graphics of the generation so far, fantastic gameplay, and a surprising story that features some of the most lovable characters of the year. The gunplay takes cues from Gears of War, but adds its own unique take on platforming and adventuring, making it an adventure that’ll engross you from beginning to end. Kudos to Naughty Dog for showing the world what the PS3 is capable of, and hiding one of the scariest levels in gaming this year.
Runner-up: Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (22%)

Best Graphics
Uncharted: Drake’s Fortune

Uncharted is the best looking game of the console generation so far, and easily demonstrates the superior graphical power of the PS3. Everything about the game is so incredibly detailed, from the varied and realistic character animation and movement, to the lush, living environments. The engine somehow manages to render a realistic landscape, with dense jungles, crumbling fortresses, and rushing water without a single hitch to the framerate. It might not beat Crysis, but it gets damn close — and you don’t have to spend $2k for the graphics card to run the game.

Reader’s Choice: Best Graphics
Uncharted: Drake’s Fortune (46% of votes)

There really was no competition for Naughty Dog’s incredible technical showcase. PS3 Fanboy readers overwhelmingly agreed that Uncharted topped other stunning PS3 games. Of course, runner-ups like Ratchet & Clank and Heavenly Sword are no slouches in the visual department. The real winner? Your eyes.
Runner-up: Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (17%)

Best Multiplayer
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare

Did we mention the incredible depth of Infinity Ward’s latest shooter? Just in case you missed our rant, the multiplayer of Call of Duty 4 is stellar. The variety of weapons, grenades and special abilities (like airstrikes) make each battle challenging and fun. There’s nothing more satisfying than flashbanging an enemy, getting close and knifing them in the back. Okay, there’s one thing better — being on the ground, life nearly at zero, as you fire at your enemies and take down a few before you bite the dust.


Reader’s Choice: Best Multiplayer
Warhawk (41% of votes)

Hope you have a lot of friends, because our favorite thing to do in Warhawk is grab three other controllers, and team up split-screen against the online community. The jump-in jump-out functionality of Warhawk makes it one of the most fun online experiences we’ve had, and the online community just gets more intense by the day. The sense of scale is what makes each battle so unique: levels can be massive, and battles can happen on a variety of fronts. Whether you love to take it to the sky, or fight on the ground, there’s so much to see and do in Warhawk.
Runner-up: Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (38%)

Best Original Soundtrack
Everyday Shooter